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If ever the cliche ‘better late than never’ applied, it is for this Saturday’s Jr. bantamweight unification in Texas (DAZN/PPV, 8 PM EST).
The quiet, extended rivalry between Juan Francisco Estrada and Roman Gonzalez has been there ever since their fantastic Jr. flyweight clash in November 2012. In a more perfect world, this might be a third fight to settle things once and for all.
History will likely regard them as at absolute peak during their reigns at flyweight. The stars never aligned for the sequel then.
They began to in early 2020.
Gonzalez’s career resurrecting win over Khalid Yafai and a shared twinbill in October topped by Estrada’s classic rematch stoppage of Carlos Cuadras reminded hardcore followers of the sport of what they’ve wanted to see, if not since the first fight, then since Estrada followed his loss to Gonzalez with impressive HBO (afternoon) televised wins over Brian Viloria and Milan Melindo.
Now it’s here and it’s anyone’s ballgame with the lineal throne and two sanctioning body belts on the line. It’s the tenth contest between the foursome of Estrada, Gonzalez, Cuadras, and Srisaket Sor Rungvisai. A win all but guarantees Estrada joins Gonzalez in the category of certain future Hall of Famer, gives him a rematch victory over every man to defeat him, and marks Estrada the first in the four-way rivalry to have a win over each of the others.
For Gonzalez, victory gives him history’s throne in a second weight class after a healthy reign as the final champion in the flyweight line established by Miguel Canto. It also sets the stage for a chance to avenge two losses, one debated and one decisive, against Sor Rungvisai who remains the only man ever to defeat him.
Boxing doesn’t get much better than this.
Let’s get into it.
Stats and Stakes
Juan Francisco Estrada
Age: 30
Titles: Lineal/TBRB/Ring/WBC Jr. Bantamweight (2019-Present, 2 Defenses)
Previous Titles: WBA/WBO Flyweight (2013-Present, 5 Defenses)
Height: 5’4
Weight: 114 ¾ lbs.
Stance: Orthodox
Hails from: Hermosillo, Sonora, Mexico
Record: 41-3, 28 KO
Record in Major Title Fights: 9-2, 6 KO
Last Five Opponents: 166-15-6 (.894)
Notable Outcomes, TBRB/Ring Rated Foes: Roman Gonzalez L12; Brian Viloria SD12; Milan Melindo UD12; Giovani Segura TKO11; Carlos Cuadras UD12, TKO11; Srisaket Sor Rungvisai L12, UD12
Additional Current/Former Titlists Faced: Juan Carlos Sanchez L8, TKO10; Hernan Marquez KO10
Vs.
Roman Gonzalez
Age: 33
Titles: WBA super flyweight (2020-Present, 1 Defense)
Previous Titles: WBA Minimumwieght (2008-10, 3 Defenses); WBA Light Flyweight (2011-13, 5 Defenses); Lineal/TBRB/Ring/WBC World Flyweight (2014-16, 4 Defenses); WBC super flyweight (2016-17)
Height: 5’3
Weight: 114 ¾ lbs.
Stance: Orthodox
Hails from: Managua, Nicaragua
Record: 50-2, 41 KO, 1 KOBY
Press Rankings: #2 (TBRB, Ring, BoxRec), #3 (ESPN, Boxing News)
Record in Major Title Fights: 17-2, 10 KO, 1 KOBY (18-2, 11 KO, 1 KOBY including interim title fights)
Last Five Opponents: 133-17-5 (.874)
Notable Outcomes, TBRB/Ring Rated Foes: Eriberto Gejon KO1; Yutaka Niida TKO4; Katsunari Takayama UD12; Ramon Garcia KO4; Akira Yaegashi TKO9; Edgar Sosa TKO2; Brian Viloria TKO9; McWilliams Arroyo UD12; Carlos Cuadras UD12; Srisaket Sor Rungvisai L12, KO by 4; Khalid Yafai TKO9; Israel Gonzalez UD12
Additional Current/Former Titlists Faced: Juan Francisco Estrada UD12; Francisco Rodriguez Jr. TKO7; Moises Fuentes TKO5
The Case for Estrada: One of the arguments in favor of Juan Francisco Estrada’s chances in a rematch has always been the weight of the first contest. Estrada largely competed at 115 and sometimes higher on his way up the ranks, dropping two classes to 108 for the 2012 shot at Gonzalez. He’s naturally a little bigger than Gonzalez and in a contest of relatively equal skill, size can matter. The skill is more important and Estrada is a well-rounded boxer-puncher who gets better as fights move along. Gonzalez hasn’t faced elite resistance since the Sor Rungvisai rematch. The fists of Estrada will ask if Gonzalez’s body is really able still to pay the sort of price Cuadras and Sor Rungvisai exacted in their battles with him in his highest weight class.
If Estrada has a glaring weakness, it can be in the occasional slow start. He’s the sort of fighter who might have been even greater in the fifteen-round era. It almost cost him the first Cuadras fight and played a role in losing his first of two fights with Sor Rungvisai. If Estrada can use his jab and smart movement to keep Gonzalez in front of him, refusing to allow Gonzalez to build momentum and rhythm, Estrada’s countering chances multiply. Estrada is very good at punctuating exchanges and that can help his chances in winning rounds against Gonzalez, who can be open when attempting combinations. Few current fighters punch between the blows of opponents better than Estrada.
The Case for Gonzalez: Anyone who saw the first Estrada fight, and the violent pace they kept, might find arguments about the weight limit less than compelling. Rarely considered is the difference in where each man was from Gonzalez’s perspective. Estrada was already much better than almost anyone realized when he got to Gonzalez. Estrada had stopped Juan Carlos Sanchez shortly before Sanchez became a title factor at Jr. bantamweight and followed the Gonzalez win with an immediate upset of Viloria. The boxing world was already aware Gonzalez might be special on the eve of the first fight. Estrada knew what he was getting into. Gonzalez might not have.
Few others did either.
Both men are certainly fully aware of what’s ahead this time and Gonzalez’s approach to conditioning since he resumed his career in full against Diomel Diocos is showing in the ring. Time away allowed some wounds to heal after the Sor Rungvisai rematch. Gonzalez appears not to be training to lose weight, his knee seems to be fully healed after having it surgically repaired, and Gonzalez isn’t swelling on contact as badly as was the case in the four fights before Diocos. It could mean the sort of stamina Gonzalez needs for the volume attack he presents should have a deeper reserve. Gonzalez’s defensive reflexes aren’t what they once were but he can set a pace Estrada’s style is less inclined to match and he’s very good at moving his head away from where he’s throwing, making him harder to counter. Estrada was down in his last fight, has had several injuries over the years particularly to his hands, and is coming off a war. Could Gonzalez show that it is Estrada, not him, who is the one to worry about as regards wear and tear?
The Pick: Weigh-ins are overrated in terms of finding psychological advantages but Friday’s looked telling in a good way for fans. Both men were in shape, Estrada looked focused, and Gonzalez seemed to be having fun. The idea of wear might be overstated for both. Neither man was quite as sharp in October as they’d been in their fights one prior, Estrada against Dewayne Beamon and Gonzalez against Yafai. The uncertainty of COVID may have played a part. Expect to see greater form for both here.
That said, go back and watch their first encounter and either in the last couple years and it’s clear time has taken some toll. Neither is as fast as they were eight years ago but the accumulated knowledge they’ve gathered in this, one of the great eras in boxing’s lowest weight classes, should make this rematch every bit as fierce. Gonzalez’s activity made it hard to give rounds to Estrada the first time and the thinking here is it could play the same again early but Estrada will win some frames. It sets up for Estrada to surge in the second half and make it a nail biter down the stretch.
So who wins? Estrada has been so good in rematches but a motivated Gonzalez can draw from a well that has made him special for more than a decade. Both men will be hittable but Estrada increasingly seems to get caught down the middle with the sort of eye-catching shots that judges remember. Gonzalez won’t land them one at a time but the sort of shots that used to just miss him inside catch him now and Estrada lands with authority. The smart pick is the younger man with less demanding wars on his record and so the pick goes to Estrada by a narrow margin of the sort that leaves the window open, wide open, for a settling rubber match before both are done. It won’t take eight years to get to that one.
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Rold Picks 2021: 8-1
Cliff Rold is the Managing Editor of BoxingScene, a founding member of the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board, a member of the International Boxing Research Organization, and a member of the Boxing Writers Association of America. He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com