The talking isn’t really over.
Where heavyweight champion Tyson Fury is involved, talking is never going to be over. Challenger Deontay Wilder can certainly hold his own in that regard and their words directed at each other have been laced with venom.
But, within hours, the talking outside the ring will meet the reality of the opening bell.
Call it chapter three.
Call it round twenty.
The only thing that will matter when the dust settles is who the world will call champion (Saturday, FOX/ESPN PPV, 9 PM EST).
Let’s get into it.
Stats and Stakes
Tyson Fury
Titles: Lineal World Heavyweight (2015-Present, 6 defenses); TBRB/Ring/WBC (2020-Present; 1st Attempted Defense)
Previous Titles: TBRB/Ring/WBA/IBF/WBO (2015-16)
Age: 33
Height: 6’9
Weight: 277 lbs.
Stance: Orthodox
Hails from: Manchester, Lancashire, United Kingdom
Record: 30-0-1, 21 KO
Record in Major Title Fights: 2-0-1, 1 KO (6-0-1, 3 KO including lineal title fights)
Last Five Opponents: 161-4-2 (.970)
Notable Outcomes, TBRB and/or Ring Rated Foes: Wladimir Klitschko UD12; Deontay Wilder D12, TKO7
Additional Current/Former Titlists Faced: Steve Cunningham KO7
Vs.
Deontay Wilder
Age: 35
Title: None
Previous Titles: WBC heavyweight (2015-20, 10 defenses)
Height: 6’7
Weight: 238 lbs.
Stance: Orthodox
Hails from: Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Record: 42-1-1, 41 KO, 1 KOBY
Rankings: #3 (TBRB, Ring, ESPN)
Record in Major Title Fights: 10-1-1, 9 KO, 1 KOBY
Last Five Opponents: 135-2-1 (.981)
Notable Outcomes, TBRB and/or Ring Rated Foes: Bermane Stiverne UD12; Luis Ortiz TKO10, KO7; Tyson Fury D12, TKO by 7
Additional Current/Former Titlists Faced: Sergey Lyakhovich KO1; Bermane Stiverne KO1
The Case for Fury: In the first fight, Fury won more rounds on two scorecards but left with a split draw after suffering a pair of late knockdowns. Fury’s performance featured some of what he used to take the crown from Wladimir Klitschko: careful spacing, selective punching, and a whole lot of feints. Wilder still found Fury for those two knockdowns, the second in a dramatic twelfth round, but in both cases Fury recovered, went forward, and stunned Wilder before the frames were done. Fury absorbed the lesson and retooled his game plan, fighting off the front foot in the rematch. Still employing one of the best feint games in boxing, Fury smothered Wilder and beat the hell out of him. Fury didn’t win every round on the judges cards but he could have. The question is what are we likely to see Saturday? Wilder has had almost two years to prepare for a pressure attack. Will Fury try to mix things up to make the bigger puncher guess early on? Given the bulk Wilder is carrying, some twenty-six pounds more than their first fight, could a jab and grab approach that tries to wear Wilder’s legs down be on the cards? It could make for an ugly fight, but winning ugly is better than losing.
The Case for Wilder: After nearly fifteen years as a pro, there is no big mystery about what the 2008 Olympic heavyweight bronze medalist is aiming to do. Wilder wins with the right hand, though his left can be underrated and provide some assistance. It’s hard to imagine a huge shift in Wilder’s style so the question for him is whether new head trainer Malik Scott can add just enough wrinkles to find the finish that eluded him in the first Fury fight. Beyond landing the right, Wilder also needs to find a way to keep Fury down. Fury barely beat the count in the first fight but, after both knockdowns, Fury displayed excellent recuperative ability. Wilder got a little wild looking for the finish and walked into shots in both the ninth and twelfth rounds. If Wilder can hurt Fury, the most important change he can show is patience and control. Maintaining his jab, maybe using the left to the body, and controlling his composure if the chance to win opens up are likely Wilder’s biggest keys to victory.
The Pick: In the first fight, the pick from here was Fury by decision. It was almost true (and these eyes thought Fury won at least eight rounds). The late surge knockdowns by Wilder encouraged a Wilder pick by knockout in the rematch. It wasn’t even in the ballpark. Fury has fought two rematches in his career (Wilder, Dereck Chisora) and in both showed the canny ability to apply the memory of the first fight to win well easier in the second.
Wilder is obviously in any fight as long as he’s standing but after two fights it’s hard to ignore the accumulated evidence. Fury has been better than Wilder off the back foot and been a lot better off the front. Wilder’s increased size may indicate he’s going for broke early; gaining close to thirty pounds of muscle since the first fight isn’t a strategy conducive to a long night. The thinking here is we see some tense moments in the first three or four rounds but if Fury is still standing after that Wilder is likely staring at another night akin to fight number two. Wilder’s chances to win aren’t discounted (he was one count from a knockout win with a knockdown many referee’s would have waved off without counting) but Wilder is going to have to prove he can close the show to erase what we’ve already seen. Fury has more ways to win and he’s already withstood the one road to victory Wilder likely has. The pick is Fury to close this rivalry for good.
Rold Picks 2020: 33-11
Cliff Rold is the Managing Editor of BoxingScene, a founding member of the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board, a member of the International Boxing Research Organization, and a member of the Boxing Writers Association of America. He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com