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I like Caleb Plant.
A lot.
I like the way he fights. I like how communicative he is in interviews. And I like the fact that I saw him working out in a county park in Las Vegas when my family and I were out there a few months back.
So I’m thrilled that he’s getting a shot to ride shotgun to Canelo Alvarez on a pay-per-view show this weekend and I think he’ll come out of it with more public regard than he’s got going in.
But that’s where it ends.
As much as I’d like to sit here and type two dozen paths he could take to winning the fight this Saturday night at the MGM Grand Garden Arena, I’m just not sure they exist.
He’s a good fighter. He’s got hand speed and footwork for days. And I do believe he has the ability to give Canelo some particularly difficult moments over the course of their 36 (or fewer) minutes together.
Floyd Mayweather Jr. gave him difficult moments.
Erislandy Lara gave him difficult moments.
Enough difficult moments, in fact, that I think both guys beat him – Floyd by a lot, Lara by a little.
And Plant’s got the type of skills that could lead to those sorts of moments, too.
But where Mayweather had the defense that allowed him to stand in the pocket and drive a 23-year-old Alvarez bonkers because he simply couldn’t hit him, and Lara had the legs to make it a full-on track meet interspersed with some violence every now and then – Plant will eventually have to stand and fight.
He had to against Jose Uzcategui.
He had to against Caleb Truax.
The two most determined – although hopelessly limited compared to Canelo – brawlers he’s faced since reaching the championship level, and the only two men to go 12 rounds with him in a title fight.
Plant had enough oomph in his shots to at least dissuade them.
In fact, he dropped Uzcategui – a pretty rugged character who’d only hit the deck twice in 30 fights – twice in the first four rounds when they met in January 2019. And he both out-threw and out-landed Truax, himself a former world champion in 2017-18, in all 12 rounds of their bout in January.
Still, dissuading Uzcategui and Truax and dissuading Alvarez are slightly different asks.
Alvarez has never been knocked down, and, even in bouts against bombers like Sergey Kovalev and Gennady Golovkin, has never been punished to the point where a KO loss seemed imminent.
And given that all but two of Plant’s stops came before he graduated to 12-rounders, it’s an issue.
“Caleb’s a very good technician, has a high boxing IQ, has all the intangibles – heart, desire, intestinal fortitude – but I just don’t think that he has the firepower to keep Canelo off of him,” ex-lightweight champ Ray Mancini told Boxing Scene. “When I saw that Kovalev couldn’t do it, that convinced me that he’s taken his game to a whole other level.”
An all-time level, to be exact.
Somehow still just 31, Alvarez will enter the ring on Saturday for the 60th time since turning pro as a precocious 15-year-old back in 2005. He beat a future world title claimant (Miguel Vazquez) in his third fight, fought his first 12-rounder at age 17 and won his first title belt four months before turning 21.
No fewer than 15 reigning or former champions have appeared in the opposite corner since that first title-fight win, and Alvarez has beaten all but one of them while collecting belts in four weight classes and somehow delivering on all that was promised by his then-colleagues at Golden Boy Promotions.
“Far more cosmic and multi-talented than I at first envisioned,” ex-HBO blow-by-blow man Jim Lampley told Boxing Scene. “But his kind of intelligence shows up more and more over time.
“Counterpuncher by origin nature becomes indomitable attacker when he wants to be? Fewer than a dozen in history of boxing. A superstar with epic impact.”
In other words, as much as I’d celebrate seeing it, I’m not holding my breath on an upset.
And neither is Lampley, knowing full well that the B-side will have to engage at some point.
“Plant knows better than to think he can win by staying away,” he said.
“Must split the difference and find some moments to do damage. Those moments are perilous against an elite skill fighter who has increasingly become a destroyer.”
Gulp!
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This week’s title-fight schedule:
TUESDAY
WBC strawweight title – Nakhon Sawan, Thailand
Panya Pradabsri (champion/No. 2 IWBR) vs. Danai Ngiabphukhiaw (No. 19 WBC/Unranked IWBR)
Pradabsri (36-1, 23 KO): First title defense; Nine wins in 10 scheduled 12-rounders (9-1, 6 KO)
Ngiabphukhiaw (9-2, 5 KO): First title fight; Never gone beyond six rounds in any fight (3.82 average)
Fitzbitz says: It’s a tale of two title fights for new champion Pradabsri, who goes from dethroning a 54-0 legend to fighting a guy whose 11 previous foes had a combined 49-45-2 mark. Pradabsri in 6 (99/1)
SATURDAY
IBF/WBA/WBC/WBO super middleweight titles – Las Vegas, Nevada
Canelo Alvarez (WBA, WBC, WBO champ/No. 1 IWBR) vs. Caleb Plant (IBF champ/No. 5 IWBR)
Alvarez (56-1-2, 38 KO): Third WBA/WBC title defenses; Sixth fight at super middle limit (5-0, 3 KO)
Plant (21-0, 12 KO): Fourth IBF title defense; Fifth fight in Las Vegas (4-0, 2 KO)
Fitzbitz says: I’d love to suggest Plant can just bedazzle Canelo with footwork and hand speed for 12 rounds, but at some point he’ll need to engage. That’ll be a decisive problem. Alvarez in 10 (90/10)
Last week’s picks: None
2021 picks record: 37-13 (74.0 percent)
Overall picks record: 1,193-388 (75.4 percent)
NOTE: Fights previewed are only those involving a sanctioning body’s full-fledged title-holder – no interim, diamond, silver, etc. Fights for WBA “world championships” are only included if no “super champion” exists in the weight class.
Lyle Fitzsimmons has covered professional boxing since 1995 and written a weekly column for Boxing Scene since 2008. He is a full voting member of the Boxing Writers Association of America. Reach him at fitzbitz@msn.com or follow him on Twitter – @fitzbitz.