Predictions: Estrada-Chocolatito 3, Fury-Chisora, more

We’ve got TWO (2) trilogy (3) fights this weekend, with Juan Francisco Estrada facing Chocolatito Gonzalez in a highly-anticipated third bout, and also Tyson Fury and Derek Chisora.

Who wins?

Juan Francisco Estrada vs Chocolatito Gonzalez

Scott Christ (84-37)

I think Ol’ Choc will be the hot pick for most here, largely on two factors:

1. A lot of people think he should have won their 2021 rematch.
2. Estrada smoked JC Martinez earlier this year, while Estrada struggled against Argi Cortes.

I think it’s gonna be real close, though. Their styles should mesh for a third good fight, and I expect arguments about the scoring again. Estrada will surely be more “up” for this one than he was Cortes, and he’ll have shaken the rust he showed in the first half of that fight especially. I’m picking Gonzalez, because I also think he’s just a bit better than Estrada, but we’re going the distance and we’re arguing again. Gonzalez SD-12

Wil Esco (97-24)

Chocolatito is a few years older than Estrada but could still potentially be in sharper form considering their most recent outings. I have no inclination that this won’t turn out to be a good fight because of the stylistic matchup, but I think Chocolatito’s slightly sharper punching during exchanges and combinations are going to be the difference-maker. Well, that and the fact that people seem to just love them some Chocolatito and will probably be looking to see him succeed here.

Despite Estrada winning their last fight, it’s clear to me that Chocolatito’s straight right hand over the top was a real issue for Estrada, and I think he makes better use of it in this third fight. It also doesn’t help that Estrada just might be declining at a much sharper rate, and I sort of expect him to somewhat struggle with the pace, accuracy, and frequency of Chocolatitio’s attack. This feels like it’ll be a closely contested fight over the distance, but I think Chocolatito’s cleaner punching is going to make a better impression on the judges. Gonzalez UD-12

John Hansen (96-25)

35 is pretty old for a 115 lber. But, Chocolatito sure looked like a top man at the weight earlier this year against Julio Cesar Martinez. And Juan Francisco Estrada looked quite haggard a few months ago. If Argi Cortes makes you look faded, Chocolatito ought to carve you up like a glazed ham.

Estrada may not be downsloping as significantly as it seemed back in September. But, even at his best, most observers believe he’s already lost two decisions to Chocolatito. Put me down for a third. Gonzalez UD-12

Patrick Stumberg (98-23)

Gonzalez beat Estrada the second time around by any reasonable metric, and while the individual rounds were plenty competitive, I don’t think there’s an argument for giving him fewer than seven. Since then, “Chocolatito” has turned in a virtuoso performance against the always dangerous Julio Cesar Martinez, while Estrada chugged his way to a narrow win over a man in Argi Cortes who, while very capable in his own right, should not have given Estrada that many issues.

I just feel like Estrada, despite being the younger man, is feeling the effects of a career full of wars while Chocolatito is in the midst of a renaissance that refuses to slow down. Gonzalez beats him convincingly enough that no amount of judging tomfoolery can deny it. Gonzalez UD-12

Tyson Fury vs Derek Chisora

Scott Christ (84-37)

Guys. Come on. Fury TKO-8

Wil Esco (97-24)

Arguably the most useless trilogy match in the history of world championship boxing. Fury UD-12

John Hansen (96-25)

In the spirit of “earning” a paycheck by pointlessly repeating something already accomplished which nobody really needs to see again and that won’t ultimately mean anything or impress anyone, I will use this space to once again predict Regis Prograis to beat Jose Zepeda last week. Fury TKO-7

Patrick Stumberg (98-23)

Long answer: Fury already beat Chisora twice as a far lesser version of the fighter he is now. He’s too long, fast, and skilled for Chisora to handle on the outside and can rough it up in the pocket as well as anyone in the division. Chisora’s only hope is a USS Cunningham overhand right, and between Fury’s experience with that trick and Chisora’s lack of setups and misdirections for it at this stage of his career, that ain’t happening.

Medium answer: Fury’s going to demolish him but it would completely redeem this turd of a year if Chisora’s right hand found the mark and produced the funniest result in all of boxing.

Short answer: lol. Fury TKO-6

Quick Picks!

Daniel Dubois vs Kevin Lerena

• Scott: Dubois TKO-4
• Wil: Dubois TKO-7
• John: Dubois KO-6
• Patrick: Dubois TKO-6

Julio Cesar Martinez vs Samuel Carmona

• Scott: Martinez TKO-10
• Wil: Martinez TKO-6
• John: Martinez TKO-8
• Patrick: Martinez TKO-9